The results are in: A:C Box Office Gross - Japan

Ati

Well thanks for the vague info, it was really helpful.

You're welcome. Youtube is full of Scott interviews on AC, it won't be a big problem to find his exact words.

But it’s actually actor Michael Fassbenderplaying a pair of A.I. units—the platinum blond David and the mousier brunette Walter—who is the new “Ripley” of this series. “It’s the A.I. that’s the real connective tissue of this franchise,” Waterston observes. “People keep saying I’m the Ripley. I’m not. It’s Fassbender.”

https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/03/alien-covenant-ridley-scott

Not exactly in Scott's words but this pretty much sums it up. Covenant was meant to shed Prometheus in a new light with this revelation.

Lawrence of Arabia - Thanks.

G. H. (Gman)

Any news from the second weekend in Japan. BoxOfficeMojo recently uploaded the incomes on the global page. With simple arithmetic we can infer that until now Covenant made 5.8 mil. But I don't if this value includes the last weekend.

red0guy@gmail.com,
The estimates for the second weekend were a little high. Alien: Covenant dropped to #5 as predicted, but it made $815,000 for the weekend. The Japanese total after Sunday is $5.1M.

Lawrence of Arabia:

“I think you misunderstand what these prequels are about. You don't have to agree but it's still a fact. Prometheus was David's film with Shaw as a co-lead like Daniels is with Covenant.”

That is crap if so and if so they got to change direction. Human characters are more important to me than AI. Nevertheless I feel that David got more attention in AC compared to Prometheus which was for the worse.

Third weekend forecast for Alien: Covenant:

The movie is showing dwindling legs and is expected to drop to #7 with an estimated $480,000 for the weekend. (Over half of last weekend's take.) That would bring the movie's total to $6.4M. Hitting $10M now may be a bit too optimistic.

Actuals will be available next week.

Whatever. I enjoyed the movie. I bought a lot of merch and sent a couple copies to friends. If people want to crunch numbers that is fine and understandable. I await the next one after BR 2049.

dk

Well, if your friends would have not that merch on their own, maybe that shows franchise fatigue for Fox. As for BR2049, I will skip it on it's first weekend because of Covenant and it's story/writing. I'm sure it will be beautiful but I doubt that the story will be more than a slave revolt in the end (and of course Deckard dying).

Actuals for Alien: Covenant's third week are in.

It fell to #8 instead of #7, but its predicted forecast was actually pretty spot on. Although it only made $420,000+ for the weekend, some weekday adjustments must have come in as it now sits at the predicted $6.4M. Attendance for the film (tickets sold) is at an estimated 520,000.

I'd say it has about another week in the top 10, but making it to the 1 Billion yen milestone will take a miracle. The film will likely finish sub-$10M.

red0guy@gmail.com I actually bought the copies for friends who couldn't swing the purchases at the time but wanted it- so it's not franchise fatigue in these cases. Either way, it translates to blu ray sales for FOX.

truth of the matter is it doesn't really matter about the numbers as the numbers don't really reflect on whether the film is good or not. its more interesting info and an indicator on if there will be another or not. the numbers are also not a good indication of actual footfall as im sure many people, especially on this site, have been multiple times to see it. so many factors can be taken into account. for example, the numbers from Japan can be seen as not to great but when u take the violent weather and release date after so many poor reviews into account, it could be deemed as holding its own. also the first weekend of release is when the advertising comes into play. the 6 month lead up to AC was excellent. fox really did a good job in the material it released and the way they released it which got so many people excited for the film, including myself. don't think iv been as excited to see a film in many years and part of the credit for that, whether people want to admit it or not, has to go to Prometheus for the level of intrigue the film laid down for AC to follow. id say dvd/blu ray sales will be a better indication of how well received the movie was as most sales will be from people who have already seen it and enjoyed it plus, unlike multiple visits to the theatres, people will only be inclined to purchase 1 copy so a more accurate piece of data will be displayed. what matters most is... did you like the film??

Japan Weekend #4 forecast:

Like I said in my last post, this will likely be the final week Alien: Covenant is in the top 10. It's expected to fall from #8 to #10 with an estimated $250,000 for the weekend. That should bring it to about $7M total after Sunday.

After that, the movie may be impossible to track unless it cracks 1 Billion yen. (If it hits $7 Million it'll be at around 775 Million Yen. It needs to make $9 Million+ to hit the Billion Yen milestone.)

After a movie drops out of the top 10 it's only given spotlight if it crosses 1 Billion yen at minimum. Not hitting that mark is fairly embarrassing. We'll see if it has enough gas in the tank to get there.

Japan weekend #4 actuals:

The good news is that Alien: Covenant managed to stay in the top 10 for one more week. The bad news is the legs are quite poor and it will not hit the 1 Billion Yen mark--Meaning it will be very difficult to track from here on out. Thus this may be the final update for awhile.

Sitting at #10 in week four, the movie pulled only $236,000 for the weekend. Its overall total sits at $7M. The overall consensus from Japanese box office analysts has been "disappointing". Whereas it did poorly in the US, it has outright flopped in Japan with a current, estimated audience attendance of 570,000. For comparison, Prometheus ended with an audience attendance of 1.24 million.

Prometheus was released in June worldwide, in August in Japan, while the dvd was released in October.

Alien:Covenant was released in May worldwide,  in September in Japan, one month after the dvdrelease in August.

For the movie to make 7$M in these circumstances is not a flop I would say. I don't know how open is the Japanese market to overseas purchase, I mean if they can buy the dvd/bluray from Amazon or other sites upon its release.

daliens

Keep in mind that Japan is a different region than the US for Dvds (1 opposed to 2, same as Europe), but the same for Blu-rays, they have no Japanese subtitles on the North-American release (but the Dvd released here in Romania on the 13th of September had them) and possibly must pay an import tax. So this solution seems a bit complicated.

We can not blame piracy because it is non-existent in Japan...

red0guy@gmail.com

What about the digital release?

daliens

I don't know... sincerely. I myself never brought a movie as a digital download.

red0guy@gmail.com is correct on all fronts. DVDs are locked out and North American Blu-rays do not include Japanese subtitles, so that's not very helpful to consumers. The crackdown on piracy is much, much harder in Japan than it is in other countries, so it can't be blamed on that either.

The fact is audiences just didn't take to it. Longevity is more important than opening weekends in Japan, and word-of-mouth just wasn't very good. Keep in mind I've yet to see the movie, so I have no horse in this race and am not bias either way. I'm simply reporting translations of how analysts and audiences in Japan view the movie and the fact is it's a flop.

The comparison to Prometheus's 1.24 million attendance also needs to be put in context. Prometheus's attendance number is better than Covenant's and "okay" for Hollywood movies in Japan, but overall "poor" for movies released in the country. It did not reach a blockbuster status. To do considerably well is to hit 3.0 million in attendance. Maybe 2.5 million, but that's being generous. The movies that are usually the top selling of the year have an attendance of 4-5 million. And although only a few movies hit 7+ million in attendance every year, it needs to be understood that such numbers are still anomalous. In short:

Japanese attendance number status:

5 million+ - Top 100 Best Selling Movies in Japanese Box Office History
4 million - The Most Successful Movies of the Year
3 million - Blockbuster Status
2 million - Okay
1 million - Poor
Under-1 million - Flop

G. H. (Gman)

I would be rather curious how do you think Blade Runner 2049 will fare judging by the fact that the first one inspired so many mangas and animes.

red0guy@gmail.com,
Nostalgia doesn't seem to play too big of a part in Japan's audience. Everyone assumed Pacific Rim would do well in Japan merely because it's a giant monster movie, but it tanked with 1.03 million in attendance--Admittedly due to lack of advertising. Everyone also thought Power Rangers would fare well since it's based on Zyuranger, but it flopped really hard as well with an estimated 230,000 in attendance. Ghost in a Shell also did badly with only 720,000, even though the Japanese apparently didn't mind it was heavily whitewashed. And even the 2014 Godzilla only did moderate business. It had an attendance of around 2.23 million--Similar to movies from the prior Toho era, often considered a weaker box office decade for the Godzilla series. Their own Shin Godzilla, on the other hand, knocked it out with 5.7 million. Generally, they just prefer domestic films.

I wouldn't bet on Blade Runner making any big waves in Japan, but the fun thing about the Japanese box office is that it's one of the more unpredictable territories. There's always a chance, as they say. But if it's a live action Hollywood film, the odds aren't very good. Animated movies usually do better.

red0guy@gmail.com I believe the ones buying the hard / digital copy before the movie official release would go to see the movie in theaters as well. It's a fan thing. 

Looking at the figures posted by G. H. (Gman) Alien Covenant is much less than a flop in Japan but strangely this makes me love this film even more.

daliens

But there is a possibility that they buy a copy and don't like it and stay away from the cinema. I know it is unlikely, but still it is a possibility.

red0guy yes, however these possibilities cannot have a big influence on the box office. I have to accept it that Japanese are not so much into the Alien universe. Perhaps a Japanese made version would sell better, all the more an animated one.

daliens

Well, on the amazon.de it has 2.9 (with over 600 votes) and according to them it stars Foxbender and Rapace (wtf? she is not even in the movie). On the amazon.co.uk it has 3.2 (with over 1000 votes more than the us site) and also stars Rapace. I guess the US and China loved the movie the most... 

daliens,
Comparing other countries' straight numbers with each other is a bit erroneous since every country has different numbers, a different size film industry, different ticket prices, different populations, etc. For example, making $80 million in Japan would be like making $300 million in the U.S. Both are incredible.

To say Germany is worse than Japan is to discount what that number actually means for Germany. For all we know $6M could be pretty good for that country. I don't follow European box office numbers very closely so I really couldn't say either way. The point is making straight up comparisons between countries' numbers doesn't work. One country's $2M could potentially be a great deal better than another country's $10M.

For example, it did a lot better in Thailand than it did in Japan. Thailand loved the movie. It was number 1 at the box office for two weeks in a row. Just because Thailand is a smaller market than Japan, and didn't accrue as much money, does not mean it flopped there.

“. . . it has outright flopped in Japan with a current, estimated audience attendance of 570,000.” (G.H. (Gman) )

If you make a movie that has the word alien in it you expect a certain format. It has usually been about the humans but now it became a AI show. This is disappointing and I think that Scott somehow deserves it. Hopefully Scott and those at Fox learn a lesson from this. Less artificial intelligence and more about well written and interesting human characters, thank you very much.

As far as how many that have watched it yes it is a disappointment. I looked up some statistics about Japan and there seems to be about 125 millions that live there so an attendance of 570 000 isn't that great.

Thoughts_Dreams,

No it's not a good number at all. But even out of the 120+ million that live in Japan an attendance of only 3 million is needed to be considered a sure success. So just to clarify--While 570,000 tickets sold is not good for the country's box office, the margin of failure isn't that wide.