Forum Topic

Stylo
MemberOvomorphJul-03-2012 9:22 AMIt's pretty obvious Prometheus underperformed. In the more-important domestic market, it should finish around $130-$140MM. Perhaps $300MM worldwide. While that seems like a lot, the movie probably cost $200MM worldwide with marketing - at least. When you figure that, plus the fact that the studios don't make close to 50% in foreign receipts, it's probably not breaking even. Once you figure DVD/Blu-Ray sales and TV deals, it will probably break even or make a small profit, but that's usually not catalyst for a sequel.
I think if a sequel gets made, it'll be because of Ridley's clout in Hollywood. But the studio will want some big changes:
- The biggest criticism in reviews was the writing. Don't be surprised if the studios attach someone besides Lindelof to a sequel.
- Lower budget. There's a chance they won't be thrilled enough to greenlight another $100MM+ budget, and Scott will insist on a sequel being made to complete the story.
- A stronger push for PG-13. Unfortunately, the studios may see the R rating as an explanation for disappointing returns. In reality, it has nothing to do with its lack of success - it was a great movie for hardcore Alien fans, but the writing and approach didn't strike a chord with the general moviegoing public.
We will see!
A real kick in the bag would be putting another director on it. But don't overestimate Hollywood's shittiness.
Alien cost 11 million to make and took in 104 million almost ten times the amount!
And 11 million today is about 45 million dollars - just shows you can make a better film for less - but yer I know its not so simple...
Your point is so true of Hollywood, but then again this is a business and if it under preforms then changes have to be made. I do agree a new writer should be give the task of moving this plot forward. I sense that this is a replay of the original Alien franchise. After Aliens it was all down hill... but I am crossing my fingers that this is not true... but the same indicators are there...
So prometheus made around 118 mio. USD in the USA so far.
Worldwide it made around 166 mio. USD so far, while
countries like Germany is still not included as it will be aired
in August!
. I have no idea where you are getting your numbers from but it is at
= Worldwide: $284,158,102
Still not doubling its cost but much better than your worldwide number.
It is an "R" rated sci-fi/horror film. The 11th best opening for an "R" rated film ever. This is far from being a disapointment.
That being said....The only way a sequel will get made is if it would do about 300% of its cost worldwide. It hasn't. DVD and Blu-Ray sales will also figure in to the total gross but it does not look good for a real sequel.
I disagree. Here is why:
Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic: $118,258,102 41.6%
+ Foreign: $165,900,000 58.4%
= Worldwide: $284,158,102
[size=1][url=http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=prometheus.htm]http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=prometheus.htm[/url] [/size]
Production Budget: $130 million
Marketing Budget: $ 80 million*
Total Estimated Budget: $210 million
Box Office Take (so far): $284 million
Profit (so far): $ 74 million
Return on Investment: 26% [size=1](not including several markets yet to release and Blu-Ray releases; I've already pre-ordered mine)[/size]
"[i]Hollywood filmmaking is an investment business—studios give money to filmmakers hoping to make more money back. Now put yourself in the shoes of an investor. When times are good, you have extra cash flowing in, and you can invest in riskier investments where many fail but a few hit big.
But when times are tight, one failed investment can sink you, so you’re more inclined to turn to safer investments. And in movies, [u]the safest investment you can make is in either a sequel or a story built from an existing franchise with a large fan base. In other words, making a sequel is Hollywood’s way of playing it safe[/u]. Because right now, original stories are just too risky.[/i]
[size=1][url=http://www.shortoftheweek.com/2012/01/05/has-hollywood-lost-its-way/]http://www.shortoftheweek.com/2012/01/05/has-hollywood-lost-its-way/[/url][/size]"
[size=1]*-Marketing costs behind Prometheus remain a mystery at this time. It is widely assumed that the budget for promotion came in well under the blockbuster norm of $80+ million simply because so much of the movie’s advertisements hinged on viral internet shorts. Even though $80 million is theoretically possible for this movie, it is highly doubtful that Fox went beyond that figure thanks to Prometheus’ built in fan base.
[url=http://www.mediamarketjournal.com/2012/06/prometheus-price-tag/]http://www.mediamarketjournal.com/2012/06/prometheus-price-tag/[/url][/size]
Hi Antony,
your numbers are a bit off. The production budget needs to be doubled to safely get an idea of the target for the box office. The reason for this is that the theaters take a big cut and the rest goes back to the studio. This is a really complicated affair with lots of factors, but a decent rule of thumb that people I know who are in the business is "breakeven = 2.5 x production budget"
So for Prometheus: Budget = $130m, it will need to take $260m plus around $70-80m estimated for marketing to be absolutely nailed on for breakeven.
Bearing in mind the foreign box office is still underrepresented, some markets haven't opened yet and figures are still coming in (I saw it again today and there were about 40 people on a Tuesday afternoon for a 2D showing, which ain't too bad!) and it still has legs in the US/Canada taking roughly $1.5m per day (although will decline sharply soon), then factoring in things like airlines, ancillary revenue, then DVD/Blu Ray and cable/hotel chain syndication, I think it will safely breakeven and should make a small profit.
Whether this will be enough for the sequel who knows, but the info you gave from shortoftheweek.com may make it more likely coupled with a decent return.
The theaters take a big cut and the rest goes back to the studio??...hey I want that chronic! Theaters make money off popcorn and Milk Duds...why do you think they want shorter features?
Get real...
Get real?
[url=http://stason.org/TULARC/movies/current-films/19-When-does-a-movie-break-even.html]http://stason.org/TULARC/movies/current-films/19-When-does-a-movie-break-even.html[/url]
"A second consideration is that theaters take a share of the gross.
Again, things are complex. The short rule of thumb is that the
theaters take half. But the way the contracts actually work, the
theaters' cut is on a sliding scale, with the studio taking a much
larger percentage in early weeks, and the theaters gradually getting
more and more as the run continues."
I have done a little research into this.
Another thing I love about Mr. Ridley Scott: money is not the issue. He produced and directed the movie he wanted to film. As always. He is beyond box office and those earthling concerns.
[i]The theaters take a big cut and the rest goes back to the studio??...hey I want that chronic! Theaters make money off popcorn and Milk Duds...why do you think they want shorter features?[/i]
Yes, FW, you are correct! Theatres make practically nothing off the box-office. It's just a pop-corn, drink and candy store that show movies.
"
[b][u]Economics Of The Movie Theater – Where The Money Goes And Why It Costs Us So Much[/u][/b]
Who Gets What From Your $10 Ticket?
Ok, so you walk up to the box office and drop down your $10 to buy your ticket. Who gets that money? A lot of people assume (as did I at one point) that the movie theater keeps 50% of it, and the rest goes off to the studios. That’s not really true.
[u]Most of the money that a theatre takes in from ticket sales goes back to the movie studio[/u]. The studio leases a movie to your local theater for a set period of time. In the first couple of weeks the film shows in the theatre, the theatre itself only gets to keep about 20% – 25% of the green. That means, if you showed up to watch Bridget Jones’ Diary on opening night, then of the $12 you put out for a ticket, the movie theatre only got to keep between $2.40 and $3.00 of it.
That’s not a lot of money, especially when you think about how much bigger and elaborate theatres are these days. It’s not cheap running one of these places. It can get even worse. This percentage will vary from movie to movie depending on the specifics of the individual leasing deal. [u]For instance, 2 movie theatre managers told me that for Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones, the studio took 100% of the box office take for the first week of release.[/u] Can you imagine that? They had to over staff and have above normal capacity flood into their theatres… and they got to keep $0.00 from the ticket sales. That almost seems criminal.
[url=http://themovieblog.com/2007/economics-of-the-movie-theater-where-the-money-goes-and-why-it-costs-us-so-much/]http://themovieblog.com/2007/economics-of-the-movie-theater-where-the-money-goes-and-why-it-costs-us-so-much/[/url]
[b]On a side-note:[/b] This is a great discussion, but if you want to be academic about it, notice that I am citing sources for my information, not just laying stuff out without citation. I'd like to continue discussing this, but I must insist that if anything is stated, you're gonna need to cite your source if you want your assertions/points to be taken seriously.
EDIT: Thank-you, I noticed that sources are now being cited in this lively debate. Kudos!
Top grossing r rated movie of all time in the US is The Passion Of The Christ with $370m, 2nd was Matrix Reloaded, quite a bit behind with $280m.
$113m, so far, in todays climate is not bad IMHO, it will be one of the highest grossing 'r' rated movie this year..
Antony, I disagree with that 80 million marketing campaign. Jeez, better movies today get made for less. Plus they used the internet which should have lowered costs.
I think 40 million went to Ridley Scott lol but it is amazing that the better movies before it (Aliens were at 18 million) and were filmed at an old manufacturing factory. CGIs intent was to lower not raise cost. The problem is that salaries and production is getitng higher.
Also, it is common knowledge that movie theaters make their money off of the concession stands than in ticket sales. Always has and always will.
For this fiasco Prometheus; it was too expensive to make. I would have brought back unknowns and made it a real prequel. People then want to compare it to The Thing prequel that tank but Alien and The Thing are different animals with Alien having a larger fanbase and more potential to do well.
Funny, I would believe, it the movie was to be real good and we would have all loved it; then it would have not made as much as it has now. People are going back in drones in disbelief to make sure the crap they saw the first time wasnt real lol.
Wow, read my post again. Domestic box office is the most important as the studios take more than 50% from the total gross. Foreign is more difficult, the cut is smaller and typically much less than 40%.
So all the math above that puts it as a profit - you're not factoring in that the movie theaters are making a big cut. At least 30-40% domestically, and more than 60% foreign.